Analyst report · CNO
Horizon 30d · LLM on. Generated server-side from price action, recent signals, and the per-commodity knowledge graph.
coconutCNO30d horizon4/24/2026, 3:23:14 PM
Coconut Oil — CIF Rotterdam (proxy: PKO/CNO spread via soyoil) — 30d outlook
Coconut Oil — CIF Rotterdam (proxy: PKO/CNO spread via soyoil) (CNO) setup is balanced over the next 30 days. Spot is 1717.44 (+5.2% over 30 days); 30d realized vol ~30.4%. Signal flow: 0 bullish vs 0 bearish effective signals; net-drift score +0.00.
Price action
- last
- 1717.443
- 7d_change_pct
- 4.763
- 30d_change_pct
- 5.168
- realized_vol_30d
- 30.415
- latest_sim_p05_p95
- {"day":30,"p05":1360.584070558959,"p50":1527.797750320798,"p95":1705.6179397562212,"base_price":1720.110670000763,"horizon_days":30}
Signals overview
- bullish
- []
- bearish
- []
- net_drift
- 0
- count_by_category
- {}
Knowledge-graph drivers (4)
- node: {"id":"signal:631","kind":"Signal","label":"weather/+1","category":"weather","direction":1,"severity":0.55,"half_life_days":30,"created":"2026-04-24T06:03:12+00:00","_labels":["Signal"]}kinds: ["Signal"]depth: 1
- node: {"id":"signal:440","kind":"Signal","label":"policy/+1","category":"policy","direction":1,"severity":0.5,"half_life_days":120,"created":"2026-04-24T06:03:09+00:00","_labels":["Signal"]}kinds: ["Signal"]depth: 1
- node: {"id":"signal:438","kind":"Signal","label":"policy/+1","category":"policy","direction":1,"severity":0.5,"half_life_days":120,"created":"2026-04-24T06:03:09+00:00","_labels":["Signal"]}kinds: ["Signal"]depth: 1
- node: {"id":"signal:632","kind":"Signal","label":"weather/+1","category":"weather","direction":1,"severity":0.55,"half_life_days":30,"created":"2026-04-24T06:03:12+00:00","_labels":["Signal"]}kinds: ["Signal"]depth: 1
Risks
- Dominant signals may be priced-in; Kyle-lambda confirmation layer trims effective severity but does not eliminate near-term reversal risk.
- Weather tails (ENSO, MJO) can flip the supply side abruptly and are not fully captured by headline extraction.
- Policy risk from Indonesia DMO/levy or EU EUDR enforcement can introduce step-changes independent of fundamentals.
- Adversarial news / source-poisoning risk — flagged sources are down-weighted, but novel manipulation patterns may slip through.