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Analyst report · LAURIC_C12

Horizon 30d · LLM on. Generated server-side from price action, recent signals, and the per-commodity knowledge graph.

palmLAURIC_C1230d horizon4/24/2026, 3:19:37 PM

Lauric Acid C12 (coconut-derived) — 30d outlook

Lauric Acid C12 (coconut-derived) (LAURIC_C12) setup is balanced over the next 30 days. Spot is 2060.93 (+5.2% over 30 days); 30d realized vol ~30.4%. Signal flow: 0 bullish vs 0 bearish effective signals; net-drift score +0.00.

Price action

last
2060.932
7d_change_pct
4.763
30d_change_pct
5.168
realized_vol_30d
30.415
latest_sim_p05_p95
{"day":30,"p05":1649.0727174551573,"p50":1807.1061483063716,"p95":1973.1498716307387,"base_price":2064.1328040009157,"horizon_days":30}

Signals overview

bullish
[]
bearish
[]
net_drift
0
count_by_category
{}

Knowledge-graph drivers (5)

  • node: {"id":"signal:631","kind":"Signal","label":"weather/+1","category":"weather","direction":1,"severity":0.55,"half_life_days":30,"created":"2026-04-24T06:03:12+00:00","_labels":["Signal"]}kinds: ["Signal"]depth: 1
  • node: {"id":"signal:438","kind":"Signal","label":"policy/+1","category":"policy","direction":1,"severity":0.5,"half_life_days":120,"created":"2026-04-24T06:03:09+00:00","_labels":["Signal"]}kinds: ["Signal"]depth: 1
  • node: {"id":"signal:405","kind":"Signal","label":"policy/+1","category":"policy","direction":1,"severity":0.81,"half_life_days":88.8888888888889,"created":"2026-04-24T06:03:08+00:00","_labels":["Signal"]}kinds: ["Signal"]depth: 1
  • node: {"id":"signal:440","kind":"Signal","label":"policy/+1","category":"policy","direction":1,"severity":0.5,"half_life_days":120,"created":"2026-04-24T06:03:09+00:00","_labels":["Signal"]}kinds: ["Signal"]depth: 1
  • node: {"id":"signal:632","kind":"Signal","label":"weather/+1","category":"weather","direction":1,"severity":0.55,"half_life_days":30,"created":"2026-04-24T06:03:12+00:00","_labels":["Signal"]}kinds: ["Signal"]depth: 1

Cross-instrument context

  • symbol: FCPOlabel: BMD Crude Palm Oil (front-month proxy, from ZL)relation: substitutelast: 4597last_ts: 2026-04-24T15:10:09+00:00currency: MYRunit: MT
  • symbol: STEARIC_C18label: Stearic Acid C18 (India import proxy)relation: substitutelast: 1303.250last_ts: 2026-04-24T15:10:09+00:00currency: USDunit: MT
  • symbol: OLEIC_C18_1label: Oleic Acid C18:1 (India import proxy)relation: substitutelast: 1641.129last_ts: 2026-04-24T15:10:09+00:00currency: USDunit: MT
  • symbol: PKOlabel: Palm Kernel Oil (MPOC weekly)relation: substitutelast: 1013.639last_ts: 2026-04-24T15:10:09+00:00currency: USDunit: MT
  • symbol: PFADlabel: Palm Fatty Acid Distillate (refining co-product)relation: substitutelast: 849.526last_ts: 2026-04-24T15:10:09+00:00currency: USDunit: MT
  • symbol: RBD_PALM_OLEINlabel: RBD Palm Olein (refined, food-grade)relation: substitutelast: 994.331last_ts: 2026-04-24T15:10:09+00:00currency: USDunit: MT
  • symbol: NOFA_C12_OHlabel: Lauryl alcohol C12-OH (from PKO/CNO)relation: substitutelast: 1672.504last_ts: 2026-04-24T15:10:09+00:00currency: USDunit: MT
  • symbol: NOFA_C14_OHlabel: Myristyl alcohol C14-OH (from PKO/CNO)relation: substitutelast: 1875.231last_ts: 2026-04-24T15:10:09+00:00currency: USDunit: MT
  • symbol: NOFA_C16_OHlabel: Cetyl alcohol C16-OH (palm-derived)relation: substitutelast: 2027.277last_ts: 2026-04-24T15:10:09+00:00currency: USDunit: MT
  • symbol: NOFA_C18_OHlabel: Stearyl alcohol C18-OH (palm/tallow-derived)relation: substitutelast: 2123.814last_ts: 2026-04-24T15:10:09+00:00currency: USDunit: MT

Risks

  • Dominant signals may be priced-in; Kyle-lambda confirmation layer trims effective severity but does not eliminate near-term reversal risk.
  • Weather tails (ENSO, MJO) can flip the supply side abruptly and are not fully captured by headline extraction.
  • Policy risk from Indonesia DMO/levy or EU EUDR enforcement can introduce step-changes independent of fundamentals.
  • Adversarial news / source-poisoning risk — flagged sources are down-weighted, but novel manipulation patterns may slip through.